APRIL 2025 Newsletter: Recent Headlines and Implementation of the Tariff Policy

We know recent headlines and the significant market drop may feel unsettling, and it's understandable to wonder if this time truly is different. In moments like these, Sir John Templeton's famous insight becomes particularly valuable: “The four most dangerous words in investing are: ‘This time it’s different.’”

Since President Trump's election, markets have experienced ongoing volatility due to uncertainty about potential policies, particularly tariffs. These tariff concerns have continued to influence investor sentiment and contributed to the stock market decline.

Here's what you should keep in mind:

Tariffs Explained Simply:

Tariffs are essentially taxes on imported goods. They aim to encourage domestic manufacturing and help manage the trade deficit. While well-intended, tariffs also can mean higher costs for companies importing materials or goods from abroad.

What's the Real Impact?

Some industries, like manufacturing and farming, may face higher costs, which could impact profits. Other sectors, like healthcare and utilities, are less affected due to their largely domestic operations.

What Does This Mean for You?

Short-term volatility is normal in financial markets. The S&P 500, an index of the largest stocks in the U.S., has gained about 10.5% annually since its inception in 1957.^* This covers almost a 70-year period of wars, recessions, political upheavals, "irrational exuberance," and boom/bust cycles. Investors who maintained discipline and remained in the market over the long term have been rewarded.

In anticipation of potential bearish volatility, CRF implemented several protective measures across many of the advisory accounts we actively manage during late 2024 and early 2025. We are thankful that these measures have proven beneficial for many of you, especially when compared to overall market performance. These actions were designed to mitigate prospective downside risks in the markets, and we remain committed to a diversified and proactive approach, recognizing that not all positions are directly correlated with the U.S. stock market.

Money often stirs a wide array of emotions—ranging from optimism and excitement to fear and desperation. The stock market has a way of amplifying these emotions, frequently driving investors toward irrational decisions that ultimately prove unwise. Successful investors, however, are those who can manage these natural feelings, staying focused on their plan, practicing patience, maintaining diversification, and keeping their emotions in check. Rest assured, we are here for you—closely monitoring the evolving situation and working to help you avoid the impulsive decisions the market may tempt you to make.

During the Covid period, we published a brief presentation featuring various statistics on market volatility. It was insightful, prudent, and enlightening, and we believe its lessons remain just as relevant today. If you find yourself grappling with the emotions provoked by market volatility,we encourage you to revisit this material for perspective.

If you have any questions or concerns, please contact us. Our priority is helping you remain confident in your long-term investment strategy.

^{Stocks are measured by the Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) Composite Index, which is an unmanaged index considered to be representative of the overall U.S. stock market. Index performance is not indicative of the past performance of a particular investment. Individuals cannot invest directly in an index. The returns and principal values of stock prices will fluctuate as market conditions change. Shares, when sold, may be worth more or less than their original cost.}

^{The S&P 500 index was introduced in March 1957, when it was expanded from 90 companies to 500 and renamed the S&P 500 Stock Composite Index.}

^Sources:

^{*Business Insider.com, January 2, 2025}

^{https://www.businessinsider.com/personal-finance/investing/average-stock-market-return}

Things You Can Do on the IRS Website

While the IRS website might not be in your top bookmarks, the website is helpful for a lot of things regarding taxes. Here are just a few things you can do on the site:

• Use Free File to access brand-name tax software and online fillable forms.
• Use the IRS e-file system: a safe, easy, and common way to file your tax return.
• Check the status of your tax refund.
• Find out how to make payments electronically to pay your federal taxes. You can use a credit or debit card or enroll in the US Treasury’s Electronic Federal Tax Payment System to pay your taxes.
• Get tax forms and publications, including helpful tips for frequently asked questions.

^{This information is not a substitute for individualized tax advice. Please discuss your specific tax issues with a qualified tax professional.} 

^{Tip adapted fromIRS.gov}

Use Privacy Settings and Avoid Sharing Personal Information on Social Media

Social media is a great way to stay connected, but it can also be a target for identity theft and scams if personal details are shared publicly. Be sure to adjust your privacy settings on platforms like Facebook, Instagram, or Twitter, so only trusted friends and family can see your posts. Avoid sharing sensitive information like your full birthdate, address, or details about your daily routine. Scammers can use this information to build a profile and potentially trick you into giving out more personal data. It's always better to keep your personal life private online to reduce the risk of falling victim to scams.

Out of the 100 years in the 20th century, there is only one that reads the same upside down as it does right side up. What year is it?

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Last Month's Riddle:If six pheasants are in a stand of cattails, and a hunter shoots one of them, how many will remain amid the cattails?
Answer:None, as they will all fly away.