APRIL 2026 Newsletter: Historical Volatility

As the Iran conflict enters its second month, geopolitical stress continues to test investors. Historical stock market performance during geopolitical conflicts helps remind us that stocks are far more resilient than the moment may suggest. As we assess today's environment and the uncertainties surrounding ongoing military operations in Iran, we focus on two past conflicts we believe are instructive, though past performance does not guarantee future results.

The two periods offer contrasts. In 1990, at the start of the first Gulf War, the U.S. economy was slipping into recession. Corporate profits were flattening, inflation remained elevated, and consumer confidence was fragile. With little fundamental support in place, markets initially struggled.  Yet even then, equities began recovering well before the conflict formally ended, anticipating eventual stabilization.

By contrast, in 2003, when the Iraq war began, the economy has already healed from the dotcom bust and the 2001-2002 corporate accounting scandals. Corporate earnings were rebounding, monetary policy was supportive, and valuations were reasonable. With stronger fundamentals in place, markets responded positively after hostilities started and began a five-year bull market that didn't peak until October 2007.

Today, we see elements of both periods - but importantly, we do not see evidence that the long-term economic or earnings outlook has been meaningfully impaired. From a market perspective, nothing about the current conflict undermines our confidence in the long-term attractiveness of equities. For stocks, the more positive 2003 path seems more likely than 1990.

Beyond the human element, we can acknowledge that this environment is uncomfortable. The damage the Iranian regime has inflicted on energy and other infrastructure in the region is unsettling. Iran maintains control of the Strait of Hormuz. There is no easy off ramp. Yet history shows that markets often recover well before geopolitical tensions fully resolve and frequently with surprising force once clarity begins to emerge. As stocks hinted at with big gains on the last day of March, that outcome remains possible in our view.

While no one can predict how long this period of volatility will last, the underlying economic foundation and corporate America's earnings power remain strong. Attractive opportunities are likely to emerge once tankers can move freely through the strait.

We believe it important to keep portfolio risk at or near long-term targets and remain well-diversified. For long-term focused investors, we see opportunities to take advantage of weakness.

^{Content in this material is for general information only and not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual.} 

^{All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All investing involves risk including loss of principal. No strategy assures success or protects against loss. There is no guarantee that a diversified portfolio will enhance overall returns or outperform a non-diversified portfolio. Diversification does not protect against market risk.}

^{The economic forecasts set forth in this material may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.}

• Introducing a ✨new✨RMD Account View Feature that calculates and displays your annual RMD amount for eligible retirement accounts using IRS life expectancy tables and prior year-end balances. Once logged into your Account View profile, you can access this feature from the Balances Page under the Required Minimum Distribution tab. This tab includes:
  
  • The current year's calculated RMD amount
  • The amount of RMD already distributed this year
  • The remaining amount to withdraw to satisfy IRS requirements
  • A detailed table of contents with the ability to filter by account using the Account Selector
  • If enrolled in LPL's RMD service, the next scheduled distribution will be displayed for each eligible and enrolled account.
    
    
• This year's tax filing deadline is April 15, 2026 for most taxpayers, but automatic six-month filing extensions are available to anyone for free. If you need more time to file your taxes, request an extension from the Internal Revenue Service and pay any tax you owe by the April filing due date.
  
  
• Spring has officially arrived🌷. As the season shifts, it's the perfect time to consider a few simple financial spring cleaning tasks🧹✨ :
  • Review Your Budget: Track your spending from Q1. Are there "subscription ghosts" or gym memberships you're not using? Cancel them!
  • Dust off Your Documents: Organize your digital financial files and ensure your beneficiaries and emergency contacts are up to date
  • Check Your Credit: Pull your free credit report to ensure everything is accurate and look for areas to improve your score

A little bit of maintenance today leads to a lot of growth tomorrow. 🌱 Wishing you a season of new beginnings and bright horizons!

Keep These Tips in Mind When Selling A Home

If you are selling your home, you may be able to exclude the sale's capital gain from your tax return. The first thing to consider is the home’s ownership and use. To claim the exclusion, you must have owned the house and used it as your primary residence for at least two years.

If you are selling your main home, you can exclude up to $250,000 of capital gain for single filers and up to $500,000 for joint filers from your return. If you own more than one home, you can exclude only the gains on selling your primary home. However, the loss is generally not deductible if you sell your home at a loss. You can also choose not to claim exclusion, in which case you must report the gain on your tax return.

Some taxpayers must also report forgiven or canceled debt as income on their tax return, including debt forgiven or canceled through foreclosure or other processes in which a lender cancels mortgage debt on the home.

This information is not a substitute for individualized tax advice. Please discuss your specific tax issues with a qualified tax professional

^{Tip adapted from IRS.gov}

Tax Season is Here - Common Scams to Watch For

As tax season gets underway, reports of tax-related scams tend to rise right along with it. Fraudsters often impersonate the IRS or state tax agencies via emails, texts, phone calls, or social media messages that appear official.

Common red flags include messages claiming a refund has been approved, warnings about unpaid taxes, or requests to “verify” personal or financial information. Government agencies generally do not initiate contact this way, and clicking links or sharing details can expose sensitive information.

Staying aware of these tactics may help reduce the chance of identity theft or fraudulent activity during filing season. If something feels off, it’s worth taking a moment to pause before responding.

^{Source: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/income-tax-return-refund-scam-phishing-smishing/}

Olivia throws a softball as hard as she can, and even though it doesn’t touch anything and nobody touches it, the softball comes right back to her. How is this possible?

___

Last Month's Riddle: Note this sequence: B, C, D, E, G. What letter should then follow as the sixth letter in this series? 

Answer:  P

The letters in the sequence all rhyme. The next letter in the rhyming sequence is "P".