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DECEMBER 2022 Newsletter: Is the Fed Ready to Pause?

December 08, 2022
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Over the years, the Fed has followed a similar pattern with interest rates. It raises interest rates, then pauses, so it can see how the economy is adjusting to the higher rates. The chart below shows the Fed’s pattern with short-term rates during the past 30 years.

So, when will the Fed be ready to pause? In the table below, you can see that speculators are anticipating it may start as early as March 2023 when the Fed funds rate is between 5% and 5.25%.

The Federal Open Market Committee gave an update on its outlook for interest rates when it released the minutes from its November 2022 meeting.

“In addition, a substantial majority of participants judged that a slowing in the pace of (interest rate) increase(s) would likely soon be appropriate,” the Committee said. “A slower pace in these circumstances would better allow the Committee to assess progress toward its goals of maximum employment and price stability.”

It’s an encouraging update that leaves plenty of room for interpretation. But when investing, it’s best to focus on what you can control and understand that markets will fluctuate over time.


  • Mobile check deposit is now available in Account View. You can now deposit checks directly into your LPL non-retirement account via the Account View 2.0 mobile app. This new convenient mobile check deposit feature is secure and the funds are available quickly. The most notable benefit is convenience – you don’t need to mail a check or initiate ACH instructions to make a deposit. The mobile app is available 24/7, so you can make deposit any time of the day. It’s also a faster way to ensure your money is deposited, and you can ensure the accuracy of the deposit when you enter the amount of the check. Please see LPL Account View 2.0 Investor Mobile Check Deposit FAQs for more information. 

  • Our Preparing for Year-End & the 2022/2023 Tax Season guide can help you get ready for tax season. Review this resource for important information and deadlines you need to know.

  • Newly available: Outlook 2023: Finding Balance is LPL Research's guide to how the readjustments in the economy and markets may impact you in the coming year. The news we’re hearing on a daily basis has the potential to disrupt the balance of our lives. With resilience, perspective, and the support of close connections, we can navigate through it all and regain our sense of equilibrium—even after another dizzying year as 2022 proved to be.
  • A new year is on the horizon. Each day that comes presents something new and exciting for both you and the people in your life.  All of us at CRF would like to take this opportunity to express our gratitude for your business, and hope you have a wonderful 2023 filled with new possibilities, opportunities, and good times.

Toolbox

There are many tools to use to plan for retirement and an Individual Retirement Account is one of them. There are two kinds of IRAs, traditional IRAs and Roth IRAs. Here are some quick facts about both of them:

  • A traditional IRA is a tax-advantaged personal savings plan where contributions may be tax deductible.
  • Generally, the money in a traditional IRA isn't taxed until it's withdrawn.

  • There are annual limits to contributions depending on the person's age and the type of IRA.

  • With a traditional IRA, taxpayers must start taking withdrawals from their IRA when they reach age 72

  • A taxpayer can't deduct contributions to a Roth IRA.

  • Qualified distributions to a Roth IRA are tax-free.

  • Roth IRAs don't require withdrawals until after the death of the owner.


* This information is not intended to be a substitute for specific individualized tax advice. We suggest that you discuss your specific tax issues with a qualified tax professional.

Tip adapted from IRS.gov

Two in every corner, one in every room, none in a house. What is it?

____


Last month's riddle:  A sudden noise startles a gopher, an owl, and a skunk at the edge of a forest. The owl flies off and the gopher retreats into his burrow, but the skunk runs for the trees. How far can that skunk run into the forest?

Riddle answer:  Halfway; after it gets halfway into the forest, it is running out of the forest.