MARCH 2023 Newsletter: Waiting for New Highs

Given the volatility of the markets over the past fourteen months, we offer the following perspective from Jeffrey Buchbinder, CFA, Chief Equity Strategist of LPL Financial's research team:

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Financial markets have experienced quite a bit of change this year in just two short months. We started the year hopeful that stocks would benefit from a better economic and monetary policy environment by the spring, but recent developments suggest that may be further out than we initially thought. We remain confident that a new bull market
will come—it just may require a bit more of our patience before we get there.

When 2023 began, we had hoped for a new bull market to bloom in the spring, prompted by the end of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate hiking campaign. Following recent data pointing to stronger growth and higher inflation, rate hikes may extend into the summer and potentially delay the start of a new bull market. Against that backdrop, even though stocks pulled back in February, this year’s modest two-month gain for the S&P 500 Index feels like a victory.

Recent evidence of consumers’ resilience has been encouraging. Over 500,000 jobs were created in January, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, nearly triple economists’ expectations (the February report is scheduled for March 10). The unemployment rate is at its lowest level since the 1960s. Retail sales rose a better than expected 3% in January month over month, as consumers benefited from the healthy job market and excess savings, while motivated by the diminished COVID-19 threat (with perhaps a small assist from mild winter weather). However, that consumer strength was accompanied by a series of hotter than expected inflation reports for January, fueling more concerns about higher interest rates and, in turn, weighing on the stock market.

Rewards for investors will come—they always do—but they will require more patience than we had hoped. In an environment where inflation has been frustratingly slow to come down, with a Fed still very much intent on combatting it, our patience is being tested. The risk that the Fed tightens too much and drives the U.S. economy into recession has risen. Higher interest rates also put stress on stock market valuations, so the longer we worry about the Fed, the less likely we are to see that bull market arrive this spring. Corporate America is not in a position to help much, given earnings declines are likely during the next two or potentially three quarters.

Still, we remain steadfast in our belief that investors’ patience will be rewarded. As Warren Buffett wrote in his latest annual letter to shareholders, “There has yet to see a time when it made sense to make a long-term bet against America.” Stocks have generated annualized returns of over 9% since the advent of the S&P 500’s predecessor index, the S&P 90, back in 1927—and that includes the Great Depression, World War II, the dotcom crash, the 2008–2009
financial crisis, 9/11, and numerous other economic and geopolitical shocks. Stocks may be volatile until the direction and ultimate destination of interest rates becomes clearer, but new highs will come—eventually.

In closing, we expect investors who put money to work in the coming weeks to be rewarded with solid gains this year. The next bull market may not arrive in time for spring, but stocks may still ramp up this summer as inflation eases and the Fed finally hits pause on rate hikes.*

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During what is anticipated to be a turbulent few months, we encourage you to continue to work closely with your Advisor in maintaining a diversified and well allocated portfolio. As the old adage goes, "it's not about timing the market, but about time in the market."

As always, please feel welcome to reach out to us with any questions.

• Most Form 1099s have been mailed out to clients and are also accessible electronically through your Account View profile by clicking the left menu "Documents" and then upper menu "Tax Forms".
  
  
• In the rare instance of a more complicated tax situation and you have not yet received your 1099 consolidated statement, your statement will be delivered on or before March 10, 2023. In the interim, a Preliminary 1099-Consolidated Tax Statement is available to you through Account View. This preliminary 1099 should not be considered final and should not be used for the purpose of filing a tax return with the IRS or with any state or other regulatory agency.
  
  
• If you are using TurboTax or H&R Block, you can automatically import the information shown on your original or corrected 1099 tax information statement. To upload your tax data into the software, you'll need your full 8-digit LPL account and 1-digit document ID listed on your tax statement. Forms will be available for download from Account View once your tax statement is available. We recommend you wait to download your tax statement until you have received all tax statements in the mail. For detailed information please consult our 2022-23 Turbo Tax and H&R Block Guide.
  
  
• This tax information, as well as access to the 2022-23 Tax Season Guide can always be found in the "2022-23 Taxes" section of our website FAQ page. Should you have any further questions, please feel welcome to reach out to our office.

^{For more information on IRS tax filing or extension deadlines, see IRS.gov.
This information is not intended to be a substitute for specific individualized tax advice. We recommend discussing your specific tax situations with a qualified tax advisor.}

About 90% of this country’s land area is made up of arid tan desert, yet its flag was once solid green (until 2011) – in fact, at one time it was the only nation in the world with a flag containing just one color. What nation is this?

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Last month's riddle: Karen is twice her brother’s age and half her father’s age. In 22 years, her brother will be half the father’s age. How old is Karen now?

Answer: Karen is 22 years old.

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*^{This material is for general information only and is not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. There is no assurance that the views or strategies discussed are suitable for all investors or will yield positive outcomes. Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal. Any economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and are subject to change.}

^{References to markets, asset classes, and sectors are generally regarding the corresponding market index. Indexes are unmanaged statistical composites and cannot be invested into directly. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment and do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results.}

^{All index data from FactSet.}

<sup>The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (S&P500) is a capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks designed to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of 500 stocks representing all major industries.

All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however, LPL Financial makes no representation as to its completeness or accuracy.

For a list of descriptions of the indexes and economic terms referenced, please visit our website at lplresearch.com/definitions.</sup>

^{This research material has been prepared by LPL Financial LLC.}