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MAY 2026 Newsletter: Reallocating for Resilience

May 11, 2026

In the investment world, we often focus on the excitement of finding the next great opportunity. However, one of the most critical components of a successful long-term strategy isn't just what you add to your portfolio — it's what you choose to trim.

As we navigate a market increasingly shaped by AI-driven surges and fluctuating economic headlines, it is important to discuss the discipline of selling overbought positions and reallocating that capital into undervalued areas.

The "Overbought" Signal

When an investment becomes overbought or overvalued, it means its price has risen faster than its underlying fundamentals (like earnings and revenue) can justify. While it is tempting to "ride the wave" indefinitely, holding onto an overextended position increases your vulnerability.

  • Heightened Risk: The higher a stock climbs above its fair value, the harder it can fall when the market sentiment shifts.

  • The "Price of Patience": Missing the best days of the market may be costly, but staying too long in a bubble can erase years of gains in a matter of weeks.

Reallocating for Resilience

Selling isn't about "getting out" of the market; it's about repositioning. By taking profits from overvalued sectors, we can move those funds into undervalued investments — quality companies or assets that the market is currently overlooking.

This "buy low, sell high" cycle accomplishes two goals:

  1. Risk Mitigation: It lowers your exposure to a potential correction in "hot" sectors.

  2. Growth Potential: It positions you to capture the upside of the next sector rotation before the rest of the market catches on.

Addressing the Elephant in the Room: Taxes

One of the most common reasons investors hesitate to sell is the looming specter of capital gains taxes. It can feel counterintuitive to sell a winning position only to hand a portion of those gains to the government.

However, letting the "tax tail wag the investment dog" can be a costly mistake. Here is why the payoff is often worth the tax bill:

  • Preserving Principal: Paying a 15% or 20% tax on a gain is far better than losing 30% - 40%+ of your principal in a market crash because you refused to sell.

  • Portfolio Health: Reallocating allows us to reset your risk profile. A diversified, well-balanced portfolio is your best defense against the volatility we expect throughout the remainder of 2026 and beyond.

Managing Your Realized Gains

While it is always our objective to manage your portfolio as tax-efficiently as possible, the extended gains realized in 2025 and the start of 2026 mean that many of you may have already seen meaningful — and in some cases significant — realized gains this year. These gains stem from our strategic decisions to trim or sell out of overbought positions — moves that reflect the strength of your portfolio's performance, our preparation for the next phase of the markets, and the discipline of our process.

With some gains having been realized, this marks the beginning of the planning phase for the next year. We encourage you to contact your advisor to discuss how these transactions fit into your broader financial picture and how you might efficiently set aside funds to pay Uncle Sam in early 2027 if profits have been realized within a taxable, non-retirement account.

If you access your accounts through AccountView, your realized gains for each account can be viewed under Accounts > Positions > Realized Gain/Loss. Instructions for logging into AccountView can be found on our FAQ webpage.

For general estimating purposes, depending on your federal tax bracket, you may be subject to a 0%, 15%, or 20% federal long-term capital gains tax. State capital gains tax vary, so please confirm how your state may tax your proceeds.

As a simple example: If you realized $10,000 of long-term capital gains and you fall into the 15% federal capital gains bracket, your estimated federal tax would be:

  • $10,000 × 15% = $1,500 in federal capital gains tax.

If your state also taxes capital gains — for example, at 5% — you would add:

  • $10,000 × 5% = $500 in state tax.

In this example, your combined estimated tax would be $2,000. Your tax professional can help you determine the exact amount based on your specific situation.

We encourage you to reach out to your tax professional for guidance on managing any tax liabilities associated with these gains as you look ahead to the 2027 tax season.

Final Thoughts

As Warren Buffett famously said, "In the business world, the rearview mirror is always clearer than the windshield." We cannot predict exactly when a peak will occur, but we can recognize when the "windshield" is becoming crowded with overvalued risks.

Our focus remains on the long-term strategy we created for you. By staying disciplined and being willing to prune our winners to plant new seeds, we ensure your portfolio remains robust, no matter which way the wind blows.

Content in this material is for general information only and not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. 

 All investing involves risk including loss of principal. No strategy assures success or protects against loss. There is no guarantee that a diversified portfolio will enhance overall returns or outperform a non-diversified portfolio. Diversification does not protect against market risk.

The economic forecasts set forth in this material may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.

  • We are thrilled to announce that Richard Chelton has joined the Concord River Financial team as our newest LPL Registered Client Associate! Richard brings a fresh perspective and a deep commitment to helping our clients navigate their financial journeys with confidence. As we continue to grow and adapt to the evolving market—from the surge in AI investment to shifting economic landscapes—having dedicated professionals like Richard on our team ensures you receive the high-level service and support you deserve. Please join us in giving Richard a warm welcome!

  • Filing taxes is both a look at the past and a chance to create a roadmap for the future. During this past tax season:
    • Did you end up owing more than expected, or did you over withhold?
    • Did you generate more or less interest and dividend income than intended?
    • Did you miss any deductions or credits (and if so, do you know why?

Answering those questions (and knowing the rules) can help you adjust your strategy for the coming year. This helpful Essential Financial Figurespdf summarizes key rules, contribution limits, and related tax information to assist you in planning for the upcoming year. Please consult your tax, legal, or accounting professional before implementing any changes.

Taking a Side Gig? Here's How it May Affect Your Taxes

Taxpayers who work in the gig economy may benefit from having a better understanding of how their work affects their taxes.

People involved in the gig economy can earn income as freelancers, independent workers, or employees. They use technology to provide goods or services, including renting out a home or spare bedroom and giving car rides.

Here are some things taxpayers should know about the gig economy and taxes:

  • Money earned through this work may be taxable
  • There are tax implications for both the company providing the platform and the individual performing the services.
  • This income may be taxable even if the individual taxpayer doesn't receive a Form 1099-MISC, Form 1099-K, or Form W-2.
  • This income may also be taxable if the activity is only part-time, side work, or if you're paid cash.

This information is not a substitute for individualized tax advice. Please discuss your specific tax issues with a qualified tax professional

Tip adapted from IRS.gov

CAPTCHA Scams Are on the Rise - What to Know

A common online security tool is now being used in a new type of scam.

Cybercriminals are increasingly using fake CAPTCHA prompts — the familiar “I’m not a robot” checks — to trick users into taking actions that can compromise their devices. Instead of a simple verification, these prompts may ask users to click “Allow,” enable notifications, or follow additional steps that can lead to persistent pop-ups, phishing attempts, or unwanted software.

These scams often appear through ads, suspicious links, or redirected web pages, making them harder to spot at first glance. Security experts note that legitimate CAPTCHA tests do not require enabling notifications, downloading files, or entering system commands — making those requests a potential red flag.

 As these tactics evolve, staying cautious when interacting with unexpected prompts can help reduce exposure to online threats.

Source: https://www.consumeraffairs.com/news/captcha-scams-are-surging-as-hackers-exploit-a-security-tool-032626.html

Three different doctors say that Paul is their brother, yet Paul claims he has no brothers. Who is lying?

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Last Month's Riddle: Olivia throws a softball as hard as she can, and even though it doesn’t touch anything and nobody touches it, the softball comes right back to her. How is this possible?

Answer:  Olivia throws the softball straight up in the air