The second half of October delivered a flurry of impactful headlines across earnings, monetary policy, government shutdowns, and geopolitics - each shaping the investment landscape as we head into the year-end. Here are some key takeaways: - Lingering government shutdown adds another layer to the macro backdrop.The continued government shutdown remains a material risk to consumer spending and market sentiment. Past shutdowns have delayed federal paychecks, stalled mortgage and small business loan approvals, and disrupted benefit programs like SNAP and WIC—pressuring household liquidity and confidence. Markets have historically absorbed these events with modest volatility, but prolonged standoffs can amplify investor anxiety, particularly when paired with other economic stressors. We at CRF are actively monitoring fiscal negotiations closely, as shutdown dynamics may influence consumer behavior and short-term portfolio positioning.
- Corporate America continues to impress.We're now more than 70% through the third quarter earnings season and an impressive 83% of S&P 500 companies have exceeded earnings expectations, putting index companies collectively on track to deliver a fourth straight quarter of double-digit earnings growth. The surge on capital expenditures from Big Tech has been a standout theme. The top seven technology companies are now expected to invest more than $500 billion next year to build out AI infrastructure, underscoring the intensity of the AI arms race. While investors have generally welcomed this investment, the cool reception to Meta's (META) results highlights growing scrutiny.
- The Federal Reserve (Fed) introduced uncertainty about the future path of rates.Fed Chair Powell emphasized that a December rate cut was "far from a foregone conclusion." As anticipated, the Fed cut interest rates by 0.25% at its October Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. However, the Committee remains divided, and the tone was less dovish than markets hoped, sending Treasury yields higher. Labor market commentary was also revealing, painting a picture of a "no hire, no fire" dynamic as companies mostly held headcounts steady amid economic uncertainty. From our perspective, labor market risks make the case for continued rate cuts into 2026 despite lingering upside risks to inflation.
- U.S.-China trade truce reduced the risk of escalation.President Trump and President Xi reached a one-year truce at the APEC summit in South Korea last week. Key elements include reduced U.S. tariffs, resumes China soybean purchases, and a pause on China's rare-earth export controls. The effective overall tariff burden is around 12%, well below most policy strategists' expectations in the mid-teens. Easing trade tensions and reduced tariffs have provided a tailwind for corporate earnings.
Taken together, these developments were largely absorbed by financial markets, contributing to a sixth consecutive monthly gain for the S&P 500 and a seventh straight advance for the Nasdaq Composite. While past performance is never a guarantee of future results, the November–April period has historically been the strongest six-month stretch for equities. That said, some of the recent upside may have been front-loaded. Summer months typically deliver modest returns1, and with September and October historically among the weakest periods for stocks, the current rally shows signs of vulnerability—particularly given the lack of a meaningful pullback in nearly six months and the narrow concentration of market leadership in large-cap tech stocks. In closing, surprising earnings upside, easing trade tensions, and a favorable seasonal setup are balanced against a less predictable monetary policy and government shutdown--leading us to favor a selective tactical approach into year-end. 1 https://www.blackrock.com/us/financial-professionals/insights/seasonal-weakness Content in this material is for general information only and not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly. All investing involves risk including loss of principal. No strategy assures success or protects against loss. The economic forecasts set forth in this material may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful. Tracking #823361 |
- To ease some of the burdens of the upcoming tax season, please review LPL'sYear-End Tax Guide for Investors 2025-2026to help you become familiar with important dates, deadlines, challenges, and opportunities that may come up as we approach the end of the year.
- We are excited to announce that our broker dealer, LPL Financial, has been ranked #1 Mega RIA by Barron's, based on assets managed, growth, technology spending, succession planning and other metrics. Click hereto read more about the ranking.
- One of the most beloved holidays on the American calendar is almost here. Thanksgiving is a time for families to gather for a time of warmth, celebration and gratitude. From our CRF family to yours, wishing you and your loved ones a warm and Happy Thanksgiving.
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Other Highlights The standard deduction will also increase in 2026, rising to $32,200 for married couples filing jointly, up from $31,500 in 2025. Starting in 2026, single filers can claim $16,100, a bump up from $15,750. The AMT exemption amount for 2026 is $90,100 for singles and $140,200 for married couples filing jointly. The IRS also provided updates for the Earned Income Tax Credit, the Child Tax Credit, capital gains tax rates and brackets, and qualified business income deductions. Also, this may be a good time to discuss the 2026 changes with your tax, legal, or accounting professional. CNBC.com, October 9, 2025 IRS.gov, October 9, 2025 |
Gift Card Scams What is a gift card scam?
Gift Card Scams are the newest threat to today’s world where cybercriminals commit financial fraud by tricking people into buying gift cards and sending them the gift card information. This popular scam is a preference for cybercriminals because gift cards are an easy substitute for cash, they are easy to purchase, and once the fraud is complete it’s difficult to track down the scammer.
What are some examples of gift card scams?
The scams typically start when the cybercriminal contacts you with an urgent request for money. The scammer will imitate an IRS employee, tech support employee, or even a family member, and will tell you to go to a store (Target, Walmart, Walgreens, etc.) to purchase the gift card. After the gift cards are purchased, the cybercriminal will urge you to scratch off the panel on the back of the gift card, take a picture of the gift card information, and send them that picture to complete the financial fraud.
Another example might be where a family member or friend will reach out to you asking for help in purchasing a gift
card online. They will ask you to buy it for them then claim to pay you back once you send over the gift card
information.
Gift card scams can be easily avoided by following these best practices:
• Buy gift cards online directly from known and trusted sources.
• Proceed with caution on all urgent requests.
• Never send pictures or text messages to anyone that includes gift card information.
• Confirm with the gift card requestor in person or over the phone that they made this request before sending any money to them
What do I do if I am a victim of a gift card scam?
If you’re the victim of a gift card scam, immediately contact the issuer of the gift card and report the scam to them.
If you contact the issuer quick enough, you may be able to get a refund. Please be aware that some issuers may not
provide a refund to the card. Tracking #542569-02 (Exp. 11/27) |
A father tells his young son, “I will pay you $6.00 per hour for the 6 seconds you took to wash your hands before dinner.” So, how much does the boy earn for these 6 seconds of effort? ___ Last Month's Riddle: A reservoir's water level doubles each day. It takes 60 days to fill completely. How many days does it take for the reservoir to become half-full?
Answer:It takes 59 days. If the level doubles each day, it would have been half-full the day before it was completely full. |
